Forum:2014-15 Australian Region cyclone season
Related pages: *2014-15 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) *2014-15 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools) Future Start Starting with this new season, the SHem will be split into 3 forums for each basin. Betting pools for this basin are here. Ryan1000 21:02, January 18, 2014 (UTC) December 02U.BAKUNG Tropical Cyclone Bakung Finally got a name from TCWC Jakarta, not every day we see these. Heading out to sea, could be a cat 1 on the way. Ryan1000 17:23, December 12, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Bakung Long gone. Ryan1000 18:14, December 15, 2014 (UTC) 04U.KATE Tropical Cyclone Kate And finally, after over six months, an RSMC Darwin storm has been named. However, it should not be cheered on - Kate is effectively right over Cocos Island. IR imagery shows the storm currently has deep convection, and RSMC Darwin is noting cooler cloud tops, but with the influence of northern shear, not much intensification has occurred and the convection is confined to the SW quadrant. Latest Dvorak estimates from the JTWC suggest one-minute winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Meanwhile, RSMC Darwin estimates winds of 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-min) and a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). As Kate tracks SW under the influence of a subtropical high, even with strong poleward outflow, shear will barely abide, preventing RI. The current forecasted peaks are 60 knots (70 mph) (10-min)/980 mbar (hPa) and 55 knots (65 mph) (1-min)/70 knot (80 mph) gusts from the JTWC. Hopefully, Kate can show some power after she clears the Cocos Islands! AndrewTalk To Me 14:34, December 25, 2014 (UTC) : Lost attention of the forums until we got a named storm in SHem (I posted for Bakung briefly), and now we have one from the BoM. Anyways, Kate probably won't become too strong, it could become a cat 1 at best as it heads southwest out to sea but I expect something like a 55-65 mph TS instead. Ryan1000 17:09, December 25, 2014 (UTC) ::Whoa, it looks like Kate pulled a surprise. Deep convection now wraps halfway around its center, and it is pretty evident the storm is intensifying based on Dvorak estimates in the face of decreasing shear. Winds are now at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-min) per the BoM, with a pressure of 987 mbar (hPa), making it a Category 2 TC per the Australian scale. While Kate is currently moving WNW, an upper-level trough to its south will steer the cyclone SW, with a brief potential to become a STC. It would be great to get one now; the tropics are rather boring ATM. AndrewTalk To Me 02:06, December 26, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate Believe or not, Kate has gone through RI. The BoM notes many satellite images have noted a ragged eye in the cyclone's core, with the JTWC advisory saying it is currently closed. Winds are currently 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (1- and 10-min) per both aforementioned agencies, with the former reporting a pressure of 972 mbar (hPa; 28.70 inHg) and the latter noting gusts of 85 knots (100 mph). With 10 to 20 knots of moderate VWS being offset by excellent poleward outflow, and this ventilation should allow Kate to reach a peak intensity of 75 knots (85 mph) (10-min)/967 mbar (hPa) per the BoM and 85 knots (100 mph) (1-min) gusting to 105 knots (120 mph) per the JTWC within the next 24 hours. Afterwards, as a subtropical high drags the system SW, VWS will cause a more fatal effect. I'm glad Kate became a STC; let's hope it can get even stronger! AndrewTalk To Me 14:16, December 26, 2014 (UTC) :I sure did get my wish; Kate became a C4 on the Australian scale and C3 on the SSHS last night. Sadly, increasing VWS is beginning to disrupt the cyclone's core. Winds have been lowered to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) (10-min) with a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa) on the BoM side, while winds are down to 85 knots (100 mph) (1-min) gusting to 105 knots (120 mph) according to the JTWC. Motionwise, Kate should move SSW for the next couple of days due to the STR, with more complex factors influencing a more westward motion further out. Although conditions are favorable currently for Kate to weaken slowly or potentially maintain its intensity, SST's below 25C and increasing shear after ~48 hours will induce more rapid weakening. However, the JTWC does not foresee extratropical transition. I have one more wish for Kate - survive into the SWIO as a TC. AndrewTalk To Me 22:16, December 27, 2014 (UTC) :::Can't say I expected this from Kate, but this is impressive, even though it's still heading out to sea. I hope Kate lasts into next year, even if only briefly, so we can have a Kate in the SHem and North Atlantic in the same year (Kate is also the 2015 Atlantic season's naming list). Ryan1000 00:15, December 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::I remember you saying that Kate would only peak as a strong TS, but it became a MH-equivalent system instead. Same here. :) Anyway, even though Kate has lost a little convection, it still maintains a bonafide structure, right? Winds have actually increased on the JTWC side: 90 knots (105 mph) (1-min) gusting to 110 knots (125 mph). Meanwhile, the BoM has lowered Kate's pressure down a tad to 964 mbar (hPa). The cyclone should continue tracking SSW for another day or so before it gets steered westwards due to a STR pattern. Moreover, Kate's only enemy for the next ~36 hours will be its decreasing convection and marginal SST's; after that, increasing shear and SST's closer to 25C will likely spell doom. Ryan, I also want Kate to last into 2015 for the same reason. She can do what Ana didn't! ;) AndrewTalk To Me 14:21, December 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::Something weird is going on; the BoM has taken Kate off their outlook, but RSMC La Reunion is not reporting on any storms ATM either. Nevertheless, the latest JTWC update on Kate shows its decreasing convection is now confined to the western half of the LLCC, despite some banding wrapping into the NE quadrant and VWS of now 20 to 30 knots still being offset. One-minute winds are down to 70 knots (80 mph), gusting to 85 knots (100 mph) A similar JTWC forecast as that in my last post is in effect, but Kate is now forecast to dissipate in ~72 hours and the models are getting more creative in regards to the system's motion when interacting with the STR trough. Unfortunately, Kate may not make it into 2015, but it could still be that occasional basin crosser. AndrewTalk To Me 20:08, December 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Kate (2nd time) Well, it looks like the BoM had a glitch or something; Kate is back on their tracking map. However, its inevitable fall to doom has continued, as convection is not as tightly wrapped around the cyclone's center, despite a completely covered LLCC. Winds have fallen down to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (10-min), with a pressure of 982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg), according to the latest BoM update, which makes it a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. For the next 24 hours, Kate should continue moving SW, bringing it into increasing VWS and decreasing SST's; this should also result in the storm's gale-force winds to become more concentrated to its southern quadrant. Also, even though both the BoM and JTWC are forecasting rather gradual weakening for the next day or so, given how fast Kate has collapsed, I won't be surprised if it survives into the SWIO as a mere tropical low, similar to Bakung. Nevertheless, this was a truly amazing storm intensitywise, and I hope we can see more storms like Kate in the near future. AndrewTalk To Me 03:53, December 29, 2014 (UTC) :Well, well, well! I think Kate might not be done just yet. The latest BoM advisory noted deep convection is still wrapping halfway around the center, and an eye feature actually redeveloped at around 1030Z. Moreover, the latest JTWC update also notes the persistent convection, with shallow banding features wrapping into the LLCC, especially in the western quadrant. Here is a visual of what I am talking about! Nevertheless, Dvorak estimates have prompted the JTWC to lower Kate's winds to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-min), gusting to 80 knots (90 mph), while the BoM have, surprisingly, lowered the cyclone's pressure again to 978 mbar (hPa). For the next 24 hours, the 20 to 30 knots of VWS surrounding Kate should continue to be offset by the good outflow, which, as the BoM notes, may allow for the system to become an STC again! Hopefully, this will happen! :) However, as the STR over Western Australia continues to drag Kate SW, it will eventually run into the combination of stronger VWS, dry air, and decreasing SST's within a couple of days, prompting more rapid weakening. Additionally, the JTWC only expects Kate to live another 48 hours or so before it gets shredded into oblivion. On a closing remark, I would like to see two more things from Kate - A.) reintensification into an STC, and B.) survival into the SWIO. That way, it can truly be an epic win! :) (P.S. If Kate does survive past 90E, it will not be renamed because RSMC La Reunion changed their policies a couple of years back.) AndrewTalk To Me 18:40, December 29, 2014 (UTC) February 96S.INVEST 96S.INVEST Alongside 98P below, we have Invest 96S, a cold-core cyclone, on the opposite side of Australia. The system has an extremely broad circulation, and most of its deep convection is confined to its southern quadrant. With excellent poleward outflow and diffluence, along with moderate shear, we could possibly see a monsoonal-type cyclone in the next few days; however, TCWC Perth notes these conditions will worsen on Tuesday, closing the potential development window. 96P's winds are estimated to be 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-min), along with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) per the JTWC, which also gives a medium chance of development in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, February 14, 2015 (UTC) 98P.INVEST Tropical Low The inactivity here is starting to remind me of 2009's activity, although nothing really has occurred in the AUS region, save for a few tropical lows. Anyway, a new tropical low, or Invest 98P, yet to be recognized by the BoM is active roughly 300 nautical miles north of Cairns, Australia. With an elongated LLCC and sparse deep convection, 98P is quite disorganized right now, but the numerical models do predict development in the next few days because of good outflow and a moderate shear enviornment. Current winds are estimated to be 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-min), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) per the JTWC, which gives it a low chance of formation. Additionally, TCWC Brisbane states 98P could develop once it reaches the Gulf of Carpentaria, and TCWC Darwin likes predicts gradual intensification of the system. Hopefully, we can get another AUS region cyclone! Nothing notable has happened since Kate! AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, February 14, 2015 (UTC) 08U.LAM Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam No one seems to have updated this in a while...anyways, there's two more storms heading for Australia, this one is off the northern coast heading for the same area Monica struck 9 years ago, although as a much weaker storm. Currently cat 1 on the SSS, and a cat 3 on the AUS scale. Ryan1000 20:46, February 18, 2015 (UTC) : Now it made landfall, hopefully no one gets hurt from this one. Ryan1000 20:38, February 19, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Lam Dead. Ryan1000 22:35, February 20, 2015 (UTC) 09U.MARCIA Tropical Cyclone Marcia Off the coast of Queensland right now, appears to be heading southward towards Brisbane, but as a smaller and weaker storm than Lam. Ryan1000 20:46, February 18, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia That escalated quickly. Cat 5 on Aus scale.--Isaac829 19:40, February 19, 2015 (UTC) : Woah, I didn't expect that jump in intensity so fast. But because of this brief stint of RI, Marcia won't be hitting as far south as it was initially thought, it seems the area just north of Rockhampton will be taking the brunt of this one. Ryan1000 20:38, February 19, 2015 (UTC) : Well, that was a surprise. Enough of a surprise to bring me back to the wiki. leeboy100My Talk! 02:20, February 20, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Marcia Well, that wound down pretty fast. It's already dead, though the remnants could still cause some flooding. Ryan1000 22:35, February 20, 2015 (UTC) When is Cyclone Alfred coming? There was Arthur Kirkland last year, Matthew Williams next year.... it's time we had Alfred.... UGH rarity is best pony 21:19, February 22, 2015 (UTC) March 10U.OLWYN Tropical Cyclone Olwyn This one is north of the northwestern coast of Australia. Expect it to become at least a category 1 before landfall in northern Australia. Ryan1000 20:05, March 11, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn Now 75 mph/983 mbars. Nearing a landfall too. Ryan1000 11:46, March 12, 2015 (UTC) 11U.NATHAN Tropical Cyclone Nathan This one is off the coast of Queensland atm, JTWC expects it to turn away before landfall, but flooding could be a serious threat from this storm even if it remains offshore. Ryan1000 20:05, March 11, 2015 (UTC) : Many days later, and now this cyclone is still a tropical storm. However, after going through some unfavorable conditions, it could turn back west and make landfall in Queensland. Ryan1000 21:30, March 16, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan After going through many days of marginally unfavorable conditions and stalling east of Queensland, it seems Nathan is finally getting his act together. Expected to become a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale (cat 4 on the AUS scale) before hitting Queensland sometime tomorrow afternoon. Ryan1000 19:24, March 18, 2015 (UTC) : Uh oh...the small circulation of this thing is exploding, Nathan could even become a cat 4 on the SSHS before making landfall on the Cape York Peninsula tomorrow. It'll then head northwest and could become a very strong cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria before making a 2nd landfall sometime next week. Ryan1000 01:07, March 19, 2015 (UTC) ::: Nathan is now northeast of Darwin and heading southwest. Fortunately, it's only a category 1 storm, so it probably won't cause any severe damage, but dang, this thing has been around for 12 days now. It's not every day you see a storm in this part of the world last this long. Ryan1000 00:48, March 23, 2015 (UTC) ::::: Nathan seems to be getting less organized now that it's moved ashore, it should be dead in a few days. Ryan1000 19:07, March 23, 2015 (UTC) 25P.RAQUEL Tropical Cyclone Raquel (2015-16 01U) from here. named Raquel. crossed year! (for australians) totally destructive|get hyper! 19:16, June 30, 2015 (UTC) :Shouldn't intensify too much.--Isaac829 19:37, June 30, 2015 (UTC) :apparently, the BoM are tracking Raquel as a cyclone in the 2015-16 season. should we move? totally destructive|get hyper! 22:25, June 30, 2015 (UTC) ::Cyclone year stars July 1, so that is why. This formed on June 30 officially (probs around 0z June 30 or 18z June 29) in the SPAC in reality, but it is now July 1. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 03:12, July 1, 2015 (UTC) ::::I'll probably get to making next year's SHem season forum sometime tomorrow, but for now, leave Raquel here. 'Ryan1000''' 20:55, July 3, 2015 (UTC)